Of the 259 orbital launch attempts made in 2024 (four Starship launches were excluded because they were sub-orbital), eight failed to achieve their correct orbits. This gave a failure rate of 3 per cent – relatively low compared with the previous year when it was 6 per cent.
It would have been even lower had it not been for two unlucky launches in December. Both KAIROS (Kii-based Advanced & Instant Rocket System), a Japanese solid rocket vehicle, and Lijian-1/Zhongke ZK-1A (Kinetica-1), a Chinese rocket, failed at launch in the final few weeks of 2024.
At 259, the total number of orbital launch attempts in 2024 was 38 more than the previous year. This is in line with a trend of rapid rise in the number of launch attempts in recent years. It has grown continuously since 2019 despite being held back by the Covid pandemic.
Meanwhile, the number of spacecraft launched dipped slightly at 2,878 in 2024 compared with 2,940 in 2023.
The unfortunate eight
1. KAIROS, 13 March
KAIROS is a new small rocket designed by Space One, a private Japanese company, and built by IHI Aerospace to carry up to 250 kg into low Earth orbit (LEO). Its maiden flight was marred by an explosive first stage launch failure.
KAIROS maiden flight is blown up after only 5 seconds of flight. Courtesy: Space One/YouTube
The failure was blamed on triggering parameters on the flight safety system being too conservative. The system detected only a minor problem with the trajectory, speed and thrust, but issued an auto-destruct command. The Japanese were wise in only putting a dummy spacecraft aboard the craft.
2. Long March 2C/3, 13 March
There was double trouble on Wednesday 13 March, as a Long March 2C/3 did not quite put its DRO-A and DRO-B lunar spacecraft on their correct transfer orbit. A premature shutdown by the launcher’s YZ-1S upper stage was suspected.
3. Chollima 1A, 27 May
The first stage of North Korea’s Chollima 1A exploded after just over two minutes over the North Korean/Chinese border. The Malligyong-1 F4 reconnaissance satellite was destroyed in the blast.
4. Ariane 62, 9 July
The maiden flight of the Ariane 62 was a partial failure. The Ariane 6 debut flight delivered 9 out of 11 payloads to their correct orbits. However, an APU (Auxiliary Propulsion Unit) failure prevented the third ignition of the Vinci engine. Consequently, Bikini Demo (NYX) and SpaceCase SC-X01 were deployed at the wrong altitudes.
5. ISpace Hyperbola 1 (SQX-1), 10 July
The fourth stage of the ISpace Hyperbola 1 (SQX-1) upgraded solid rocket failed. With it, three Yunyao-1 meteorological satellites were also lost.
6. Falcon 9, 12 July
The famous Falcon 9 suffered a rare launch failure. The Falcon 9v1.2FT Block 5 launch lost all of the Starlink Group 9-3 of 20 v2 Mini comsats (13 Direct-to-Cell) because of faulty deployment in very low perigee orbit, after the upper stage engine exploded on the circularisation burn. A propellant leak froze engine components on board.
7. KAIROS, 18 December
The second flight of the KAIROS solid rocket lifted off from Kii Spaceport in Japan on 18 December at 0200 GMT. It was carrying a set of small satellites/cubesats into orbit: Tatara-1, SC-Sat1, Parus-T1A, Ishiki and an unidentified 3U Cubesat. However, towards the end of the first-stage burn, KAIROS appeared to lose control and corkscrew/tumble. It exploded soon after (the explosive termination was activated correctly this time around), and all of the payloads onboard were lost. A full investigation into this latest failure is underway.
8. Lijian-1/Zhongke ZK-1A (Kinetica-1), 27 December
While Lijian-1/Zhongke ZK-1A (Kinetica-1) is much further along in its career, its sixth flight ended in failure after a suspected fault with its third stage. Stage 3 lost attitude control three seconds after ignition and the self-destructing mechanism was activated. Launched from Jiuquan, China at 0103 GMT, Lijian-1 carried 11 small spacecraft including CASAA-Sat, Dier-3, Yangwang 2, Yinglong-1, Yunyao-1 01-06 and Yixian, all of which were lost. Seradata understands that some of these were insured on the Chinese market up to a value of 50 million Yuan (US$6.8m).
Although it was not technically a launch failure, the deployment of the Jackal Autonomous Orbital Pursuit Vehicle 2 (AOPV 2) from a Falcon 9 launch on 4 March did not quite go to plan after a telecommunications failure.
